Are you working on the True Problem?

I had an "Aha!" moment last week, while reading The Toyota Way Fieldbook (Jeffrey K. Liker and David Meier, McGraw-Hill, 2006, 476 pages).  My moment of clarity came around page 327, in a section called "Find the True Problem to Get the Most Significant Results."

Many of us know how to solve problems in a rational fashion, using tools like the 5-Whys, brainstorming, and the Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle.  But are we working on the most important problem?  And how do we know?

Liker and Meier say that we often make the mistake of beginning our problem solving efforts at whatever level the problem is first perceived. 

For example, we feel drafts around the back door of the house, and start working on how to fix the drafts. 

What we should do first, though, is sort out whether that is the "true problem."  To do that, start from the perceived problem and use "therefore" statements to work up to the "true problem."

For example:

• The back door is drafty, therefore we are losing heat.
• We are losing heat, therefore the heater runs longer to maintain our temperature setpoint.
• The heater runs longer, therefore our gas consumption goes up.
• Our gas consumption goes up, therefore we pay more to the gas company.

That's the true problem here - paying more each month for gas.

The next step is to work back down toward root causes by asking "why?"  We'll generate a large number of potential causes of the true problem, some of which we can work on and some of which are out of our control; some of which have high impact, and some of which have trivial impact.

For example:

• The gas bill is high.  Why is it high?
  • Because consumption is high.
  • Because gas prices are high. (Can't do anything about that.)
  • Why is gas consumption high?
    • Because it's cold outside.  (Can't change that.)
    • Because the temperature setpoint is 80 degrees.
    • Because we didn't get the heater serviced this fall.
    • Because the back door is drafty.
    • Why is the temperature setpoint 80 degrees?
      • Because we shiver if it is set lower.
        • Why do we shiver if the setpoint is lower?
          • Because we are wearing shorts and t-shirts around the house.
            • Why are we wearing shorts and t-shirts?
              • Don't ask!

Now we have a list of causes to choose from.  (If this was a real list, the first problem I would tackle is the temperature setpoint, because it has a large impact and is relative easy to fix quickly.)  So we move on to defining the problem explicitly, analyzing for root cause, finding possible solutions, selecting one for implementation, and implementing that solution using the Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle.

But, before implementing, check your proposed solution by using "therefore" statements again.  If the proposed solution will reduce the negative impact of the true problem, you are on the right track. 

For example:

• We are going to put our shorts away and wear long pants and long sleeved shirts around the house, therefore
• We can lower the heater setpoint, therefore
• The heater will use less gas, therefore
• Our gas bill will go down.

Why was this such a revelation to me? 

Well, to be honest, I love problem solving and helping others solve problems.  Show me a problem and I'll jump into root cause analysis faster than you can say "wrong problem."  Once I read this section of Liker and Meier's book it was obvious (as are all good ideas) - before jumping into root cause analysis, follow a train of "therefore" statements to the true problem. Taking the time to do that will increase the return on your problem solving efforts.

[Revision 27 Dec 06:  deleted duplicate "page" in introduction.]