It would be nice if we could accurately predict the future before we had to make decisions. Unfortunately, we usually can't. We are forced to make decisions with imperfect knowledge and uncertain outcomes. Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, has a useful approach to decisions like this.
In a post today, Adams says,
"I have a rule I like to use. Let’s say there are a hundred important factors to consider in a given decision. 99 of the factors are impossible to predict, based on the fact that the experts are all over the map with their opinions. But let’s say one of the factors is easy to predict and important. I make my decision based on the one easy-to-predict factor and ignore the other 99."
Agree or disagree with his conclusion in this example, but also think about how his approach might work for you. Does this make sense with the decisions you face in your life? If you don't like his approach, what works for you? I'd love to hear other tools for deciding when 99% of the factors are impossible to predict.
[3dec06 - fixed spelling in title of post]
